While many pundits and prognosticators are projecting moderate Republican losses in the House (generally in the 15 to 25 seat range) and proportionally analogous losses in the Senate (3 to 5 seats), my analysis of 33 seemingly similar congressional elections lends credibility to the thesis that the Democratic party will pick up at least 35 seats in the House and at least 5 Senate seats. The 2006 congressional election cycle is very much like the previous 33 elections insofar as the party that lost seats in each Rejection Election was:
1) Closely associated with an unpopular/embattled President 2) Fragmenting over philosophy, personality issues and/or policy disputes 3) Perceived to be corrupt/ "out of touch" and/or 4) Believed to be failing in their efforts to provide leadership on the most salient challenges (the "big questions" such as the proper role of the federal government vis-à-vis states' rights, war, slavery, and severe economic dislocations)
President George W. Bush's sagging favorability levels, the disenchantment/estrangement of social conservatives from the Republicans in light of the "lip service" theory advanced by David Kuo and others, the recent scandals, the DeLay-Ney-Cunningham-Abramoff-Foley (et. al.) affairs which smack of Republican corruption and arrogance, and, above all else, the ongoing failure of the Bush Administration to devise (and communicate) a plan for winning the War in Iraq provide strong evidence that this will be a Rejection Election.
It is important to note that, from time to time, the party out of power finds itself bearing the brunt of voter rejection. The conduct of certain secessionist-minded Northeastern Federalists helped facilitate the utter collapse of the party following the War of 1812. That said, the party in power is far more likely to suffer electoral reversals in such Rejection Elections.
Writing about the Presidency in his compelling work, "The Politics Presidents Make," Yale Professor Stephen Skowronek argued that the "power to recreate order hinges on the authority to repudiate it." Presidents have the greatest warrant of authority when the previous regime sequence has proved incapable of addressing the most significant challenges facing the nation. For example, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was able to practice what Skowronek termed "the politics of reconstruction" given the failure, borne of ideological rigidity, of the Hoover Administration and the prevailing (read: non-Progressive) Republican economic thinking that was de rigueur in the 1920s.
When a previous regime sequence collapses, such as the Harding-Coolidge-Hoover line of Republicanism, a realigning election takes place. Sometimes, it occurs in the Presidential election year, as it did in 1800 when the Democratic-Republican Vice President Thomas Jefferson succeeded the repudiated Adams Administration. Other times, it takes place in a mid-term election cycle, as it did in 1858 as the electorate lost faith in the ability of President Buchanan and the Democratic Party to handle the slavery issue. When the party in power loses a substantial number of seats in a mid-term election, the opposition party is very likely to re-capture the Presidency in the next Presidential election. Assuming this happens to the Republicans in 2006, this bodes well for Democratic Presidential aspirants in 2008.
In the 19th Century, two parties were rejected so soundly (the Federalists and the Whigs) they ceased to exist as functioning political structures. In our recent history, while both the Democratic Party and the G.O.P. have faced time in the wilderness, they have proven to be more enduring and adaptable. That said, both parties have been rejected at the polls on numerous occasions.
Election Key Election Issues Seats lost & Percentage loss compared to the previous Congress
1. 1800: Party in Power: The Federalists
Rejection of the Federalist Model of Governance at the national level (increasing support for state's rights positions, as embodied in such documents as the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions). Rejection of the perceived monarchial tendencies of the Adams Administration.
Federalist losses:
House: From 60 to 38 seats/lost 22 seats/37% Senate: From 22 to 15 seats/lost 7 seats/32%
2. 1808: Party in Power: The Democratic-Republicans
Economic downtown due, in significant part, to President Jefferson's embargo.
Democratic-Republican losses:
House: From 116 to 92 seats/lost 24 seats/21% Senate: From 28 to 27 seats/lost 1 seat/4%
3. 1816: Party out of Power: The Federalists
Federalist opposition to the War of 1812 and a larger rejection of the Federalist worldview (the Hartford Convention).
Federalist losses:
House: From 64 to 39 seats/lost 25 seats/39% Senate: From 12 to 12 seats/lost no seats
4. 1828: Party out of Power: The Anti-Jacksonians
Ascendancy of Jacksonian Democracy. Charges of corruption against President Adams (the perceived Clay Bargain)
Anti-Jacksonian losses:
House: From 100 to 72 seats/lost 28 seats/28% Senate: 21 to 23/Anti-Jacksonian gain of 2 seats
5. 1840: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Panic of 1837. The co-option of the Democratic/ Jacksonian/war-hero/populist "brand" by Whig nominee General Harrison.
Democratic losses:
House: From 125 to 98 seats/lost 27 seats/22% Senate: From 30 to 22 seats/lost 8 seats/27%
6. 1842: Party in Power: The Whigs
Rejection of President Tyler by the Democratic Party (which he left) and the Whigs who did not embrace him following the death of President Harrison. Mass Cabinet resignation (party fragmentation).
The first mid-term rejection election. The Democratic Party nominee, James Polk would go on to defeat the Whig nominee, Henry Clay
Whig losses:
House: From 142 to 72 seats/lost 70 seats/49% Senate: From 29 to 29 seats/lost no seats
7. 1846: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Concerns about the Mexican War being a war of aggression, not of necessity. Significant opposition to the War by Conscience Whigs (primarily from the North, including then Congressman Abraham Lincoln).
The second mid-term rejection election. The Whig nominee and Mexican War hero, General Zachary Taylor, defeated Michigan Governor Lewis Cass.
Democratic losses:
House: From 142 to 110 seats/lost 32 seats/23% Senate: From 34 to 38 seats/gain of 4 seats
8. 1854: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
A nation (and party) becoming increasingly polarized by the slavery issue (the troubles with Cuba being one manifestation of the larger slavery debate).
The rise of new Opposition parties (the nascent Republicans as well as the American/"Know-Nothing" Party).
The third mid-term Rejection Election. In 1856, The Democratic nominee, James Buchanan, would defeat the first Republican Presidential nominee, John Fremont. That said, Buchanan's 45% plurality win (based on the popular vote; almost 59% of the electoral vote) marked the last victory by a Democratic Presidential nominee until Grover Cleveland in 1884 (the disputed 1876 contest between Tilden and Hayes notwithstanding).
Democratic losses:
House: From 142 to 110 seats/lost 32 seats/23% Senate: From 34 to 38 seats/gain of 4 seats
9. 1858: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
A rejection of the Buchanan Presidency (Bleeding Kansas, Panic of 1857) and continued fragmentation of the Democratic Party.
The Republican Presidential nominee, former Congressman Abraham Lincoln, would win the Presidency in 1860 against two Democratic nominees (Stephen Douglas and John Breckinridge) and the Constitutional Union party nominee (John Bell).
Democratic losses:
House: From 132 to 83 seats/lost 49 seats/ 37% Senate: From 41 to 38 seats/lost 3 seats/ 7%
10. 1870: Party in Power: The Republican Party
A rejection of Reconstruction policies/Radical Republicanism and the Grant Administration (Black Friday/Fisk-Gould Scandal).
By the waving the "Bloody Shirt" and by facing off against a relatively weak Democratic Party Presidential nominee, President Grant would go on to win a second term in 1872.
Republican losses:
House: From 171 to 136 seats/lost 35 seats/ 20% Senate: From 62 to 56 seats/lost 6 seats/10%
11. 1874: Party in Power: The Republican Party
A rejection of continued Reconstruction policies, Panic of 1873, and the scandals pinned on the Grant Administration (Credit Moblier, other corruption charges impacting the Cabinet and other Executive Branch officials).
In the next President election, 1876, Republican Governor Rutherford Hayes would defeat the Democratic nominee Samuel Tilden (the latter winning 51% of the popular vote, the strongest showing by a Democrat since President Jackson in 1832, but losing the electoral college vote).
Republican losses:
House: From 199 to 103 seats/lost 96 seats/ 48% Senate: From 47 to 46 seats/lost 1 seat/ 2%
12. 1882: Party in Power: The Republican Party
A rejection of the Arthur Presidency (questions regarding his commitment to civil service reform, his Executive style/qualifications)
In the next Presidential election in 1884, the Democratic nominee Grover Cleveland would defeat Republican nominee James Blaine.
Republican losses:
House: From 151 to 117 seats/lost 34 seats/23% Senate: From 37 to 38 seats/gain of one seat
13. 1890: Party in Power: The Republican Party
A rejection of the highly unpopular McKinley Tariff.
In the next Presidential election in 1892, President Harrison, the Republican nominee, would lose to former President Cleveland, the Democratic nominee.
Republican losses:
House: From 179 to 86 seats/lost 93 seats/52% Senate: From 51 to 47 seats/lost 4 seats/8%
14. 1894: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of President Cleveland's economic policies (Panic of 1893) and the fragmentation of the Democratic Party along metallic (gold vs. silver) and sectional (East vs. West and South) lines.
In the next Presidential election in 1896, the Republican nominee, William McKinley, would defeat the Democratic presidential nominee, William Jennings Bryan.
Democratic losses:
House: From 218 to 93 seats/lost 125 seats/57% Senate: From 44 to 40 seats/lost 4 seats/9%
15. 1896: Party in Power: the Republican Party
Democratic Party re-captures a significant number of the marginal seats lost in the 1894 elections.
Republican losses:
House: From 254 to 206 seats/lost 48 seats/19% Senate: From 44 to 44 seats/lost no seats
16. 1904: Party out of Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of the "Judge Parker"-led Democratic Party. President Roosevelt's popularity and a Presidential election that turned on personality more than issues hurt the Democratic Party.
Democratic losses:
House: From 176 to 135 seats/lost 41 seats/23% Senate: From 33 to 32 seats/lost 1 seat/3%
17. 1910: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of the Taft Presidency and the Payne-Aldrich Tariff he championed (unfavorable comparisons to former President Roosevelt didn't help his standing).
In the next Presidential election in 1912, the Democratic nominee, Governor Woodrow Wilson, would go on to defeat President Taft and former President Roosevelt.
Republican losses:
House: From 219 to 162 seats/lost 57 seats/26% Senate: From 60 to 52 seats/lost 8 seats/13%
18. 1912: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of a divided GOP (Roosevelt's Progressives vs. Taft's moderate progressives & conservatives).
Republican losses:
House: From 162 to 134 seats/lost 28 seats/17% Senate: From 52 to 44 seats/lost 8 seats/15%
19. 1920: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of Wilsonianism (his League of Nations concept being first among other issues).
Democratic losses:
House: From 192 to 131 seats/lost 61 seats/32% Senate: From 47 to 37 seats/lost 10 seats/21%
20. 1922: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Despite President Harding's popularity, the Democratic Party re-captured many marginal seats they lost in the 1920 congressional elections.
In the next President election cycle, 1924, the incumbent Republican President would handily defeat the Democratic nominee (John Davis) as well as the Progressive Robert LaFollette.
Republican losses:
House: From 302 to 225 seats/lost 77 seats/25% Senate: From 59 to 53 seats/lost 6 seats/10%
21. 1930: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of Hoover Republicanism, reaction to GOP stewardship during the first year of the Great Depression.
President Hoover would go on to lose re-election in the 1932 Presidential election, by a wide margin, to the Democratic nominee, Franklin Roosevelt.
Republican losses:
House: From 270 to 218 seats/lost 52 seats/19% Senate: From 56 to 48 seats/lost 8 seats/14%
22. 1932: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Complete rejection of the GOP/voter response to the ongoing Great Depression.
Republican losses:
House: From 218 to 117 seats/lost 101 seats/46% Senate: From 48 to 36 seats/lost 12 seats/25%
23. 1938: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Reaction to the Roosevelt Administration's inability to end the Great Depression/perceived "over-reaching" by President Roosevelt (his Court Packing Plan).
President Roosevelt would go on to win an unprecedented third term in 1940, thanks in large part to his personal popularity and widespread belief that he, and not GOP nominee Wendell Willkie, was better equipped to lead the nation through the ongoing crises.
Democratic losses:
House: From 334 to 262 seats/lost 72 seats/22% Senate: From 76 to 69 seats/lost 7 seats/9%
24. 1942: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of President Roosevelt's prosecution of the War.
In the next Presidential election in 1944, the majority of the electorate voted to re-elect the President, believing that his leadership was instrumental in the War against totalitarianism.
Democratic losses:
House: From 267 to 222 seats/lost 45 seats/17% Senate: From 66 to 57 seats/lost 9 seats/14%
25. 1946: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
First congressional election following the conclusion of the Second World War, first congressional election of the Cold War era. Challenge to Democratic hegemony.
In the next Presidential election in 1948, President Truman, facing a splintered Democratic Party and a resurgent Republican Party, would nonetheless go on to defeat GOP nominee Thomas Dewey as well as States' Rights nominee Strom Thurmond and Progressive Party candidate Henry Wallace.
Democratic losses:
House: From 242 to 188 seats/lost 54 seats/22% Senate: From 57 to 45 seats/lost 12 seats/21%
26. 1948: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of GOP Congressional leadership during a time of crisis (Cold War foreign policy challenges) and President Truman's successful frame of the "Do-Nothing" 80th Congress.
Republican losses:
House: From 246 to 171 seats/lost 75 seats/30% Senate: From 51 to 42 seats/lost 9 seats/18%
27. 1958: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of a perceived lack of direction/leadership from the Republican Eisenhower Administration.
In the next Presidential election in 1960, the Democratic nominee, Senator John F. Kennedy, would defeat the Republican nominee, Vice President Richard Nixon.
Republican losses:
House: From 201 to 153 seats/lost 48 seats/24% Senate: From 47 to 35 seats/lost 12 seats/26%
28. 1964: Party out of Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of Goldwater Republicanism.
Republican losses:
House: From 176 to 140 seats/lost 36 seats/20% Senate: From 34 to 32 seats/lost 2 seats/6%
29. 1966: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Voter reaction/backlash to President Johnson's Great Society/growing concerns about the conflict in Vietnam.
In the next Presidential election cycle in 1968, the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon, would defeat the Democratic nominee, Hubert Humphrey and the American Independent candidacy of George C. Wallace.
Democratic losses:
House: From 295 to 247 seats/lost 48 seats/16% Senate: From 68 to 64 seats/lost 4 seats/6%
30. 1974: Party out of Power (in Congress): The Republican Party
Rejection of the Nixon Administration/Watergate scandals.
In the next Presidential election in 1976, the Democratic nominee, Jimmy Carter, would defeat the incumbent Republican President, Gerald Ford (the latter having to fend off a serious challenge in the primaries from former Governor Ronald Reagan).
Republican losses:
House: From 192 to 144 seats/lost 48 seats/25% Senate: From 42 to 38 seats/lost 4 seats/10%
31. 1980: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of the Carter Presidency/perception that the Democratic Party was not equipped to deal with the economic (stagflation) and foreign policy (Cold War/Iranian hostage crisis) challenges of the day.
Democratic losses:
House: From 277 to 242 seats/lost 35 seats/13% Senate: From 58 to 46 seats/lost 12 seats/21%
32. 1982: Party in Power: The Republican Party
Rejection of the Reagan Administration's handling of the recession. Democratic re-capture of marginal seats lost in the 1980 elections.
A resurgent economy and his personal popularity provided President Reagan with a significant advantage over the Democratic nominee Walter Mondale in the 1984 Presidential election.
Republican losses:
House: From 192 to 166 seats/lost 26 seats/14% Senate: From 53 to 54 seats/gained one seat
33. 1994: Party in Power: The Democratic Party
Rejection of the Clinton Administration's early missteps (health care, gays in the military, et. al.).
A growing economy, a re-positioned Clinton Presidency and a relatively poor campaign by Republican nominee Robert Dole allowed the Democratic Party to retain the Presidency in the 1996 Presidential elections.
Democratic losses:
House: From 258 to 204 seats/lost 54 seats/21% Senate: From 57 to 48 seats/lost 9 seats/16%
Thus, based on these historical trends, I believe that the Democratic Party will re-capture control of the House (with a net gain of 35+ seats) and is likely to pick up at least five additional Senate seats this cycle.
Moreover, the prospects for the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2008 are looking bright indeed.
The author of this article, Jason Booms, is President & CEO of Booms Research & Consulting, a Democratic opinion research and strategic communications agency based in Alexandria, Virginia. He can be reached at jbooms@boomsresearch.com (www.boomsresearch.com).